ApeCoin price has rallied 50% in the last three weeks but a sell-the-news event risks wiping out those gains.
The multi-week ApeCoin (APE) market rally is nearing exhaustion owing to a mix of technical and fundamental factors.
Fundamental — ApeCoin Staking launch
In the past two weeks, APE's price is up over 50% after bottoming at around $2.60.
The APE/USD rebound came in line with similar recovery moves elsewhere in the crypto market. But, it outperformed top assets, including Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH), as traders pinned their hopes on ApeCoin's staking debut.
The ApeCoin Staking feature will debut on Dec. 5 at apestake.io, according to its developer Horizon Labs. It will allow users to lock their APE holdings into four staking pools — ApeCoin pool, BAYC pool, MAYC pool, and Paired pool — that will allow them to earn yield periodically.
The feature announcement has resulted in a rise in the APE holders' count, according to data tracked by Dune Analytics. Notably, it reached 103,591 on Dec. 2 compared to 94,775 a month ago, which, combined with rising prices, shows an increase in APE's spot demand.
But analysts fear that the ApeCoin Staking may become a sell-the-news event. For instance, Altcoin Sherpa says that one shouldn't buy APE in anticipation of a continuous bull-run toward $5 after the staking launch.
"You can probably long until staking starts, and then you can just short it [...] I wouldn't buy here personally but would wait for a break/retest."
Technical — 30% APE price correction ahead?
Technicals meanwhile suggest that ApeCoin's price can decline by at least 30% by the end of December.
The daily chart shows APE's price entering a correction upon testing its multi-month descending trendline resistance near $4.50. This move is reminiscent of price pullbacks witnessed multiple times since August, as shown below.
Each correction cycle highlighted in the chart above exhausts when APE reaches the lower end of the Bollinger Band. The $2.80-2.50 range comes into play if this fractal repeats, down up to 30% from current price levels.
Conversely, a breakout above the descending trendline resistance could invalidate the bearish setup — by sending APE price to its primary upside target near the 200-week exponential moving average (the blue wave) near $6.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.